Welcome to the weekend! The tariff two-step continues in the US as the White House looks for new reasons to impose tariffs. Meanwhile, new data surfaces that reveals just how reliant the fiscal stability of the US has become on collecting tariffs.

Also in this edition:

• Leverage ratios masked by EBITDA adjustments, study finds
• CBP: System for tariff refunds up to 80% complete
• CFOs scrambling to curb rising health insurance costs
• SEC, PCAOB enforcement actions fall sharply in 2025

The US has initiated a new series of tariff investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, targeting 60 trading partners such as the UK, EU, and Canada. These probes are designed to examine forced labor practices and could pave the way for additional tariffs. This is the second probe against trading partners launched by the US in as many days, and comes as the administration seeks legal avenues to maintain or restore tariff levels after the Supreme Court struck down its prior tariff regime.

Tariffs have generated more revenue than corporate taxes this year, with customs duties totaling $151 billion through the first five months of the fiscal year, a 294% increase from the same period last year. Meanwhile, corporate tax revenue fell 17%. The US budget deficit reached $1.004 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2026, though this is a 12% decrease from last year.

Adjusted EBITDA has become increasingly reliant on "add-backs," which are one-time items that management deems nonrecurring but often recur, creating a misleading picture of leverage, writes Suzanne Gibbons, partner and head of research at Davidson Kempner Capital Management. This trend has resulted in a significant gap between reported and actual leverage, with leveraged loans and direct lending showing much higher underlying leverage than reported, according to a study by S&P Global.

Prices increased 2.8% from a year earlier and 0.3% from the previous month, according to the personal consumption expenditures price index. Core inflation, the measure excluding food and energy, rose by 0.4% for the month and reached 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. The data predates the Iran conflict, which has sent fuel prices higher.

The US trade deficit shrank 25% to $54.5 billion in January as exports rose 5.5% and imports declined slightly, according to Commerce Department data. The improvement was driven largely by a sharp increase in gold exports, though analysts say volatile trade flows tied to tariffs continue to make longer-term trends difficult to interpret.

The Trump administration is considering a 30-day waiver of the Jones Act, which mandates that American vessels be used in shipping goods between US ports, in an effort to curtail rising oil and gas prices amid the Iran war. Such a move would "absolutely [facilitate] the free flow of gasoline, which otherwise would have to come from Europe or other destinations to reach the Northeast," said former US energy envoy David Goldwyn, president of the consultancy Goldwyn Global Strategies.

US Customs and Border Protection is 40% to 80% finished with a four-part system to refund $166 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled illegal, according to a court filing. The agency is developing an online portal for importers and brokers to submit refund requests.

To manage escalating health insurance costs, corporate leaders are employing a range of strategies, from tweaking plan designs and negotiating with vendors to requiring employees to pay higher premiums and out-of-pocket charges. Such tactics may only modestly reduce the impact of rising expenses, and many firms are absorbing a significant portion of increases to limit employee burden. However, persistent cost pressures are prompting CFOs and CEOs to consider more drastic measures, as many see an 8-10% cost jump as a threshold for major changes.

Enforcement of accounting and auditing rules by the Securities and Exchange Commission reached a nine-year low in 2025, with the agency initiating only 10 actions -- down sharply from 31 in 2024. Notably, only four enforcement actions were initiated after Paul Atkins was sworn in as chair, highlighting a marked slowdown compared to previous leadership transitions. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board also saw a decrease in enforcement last year, finalizing 27% fewer actions and levying 50% less in monetary penalties.

Private credit funds are facing new challenges as banks, led by JPMorgan Chase, cut back on leveraged lending. JPMorgan's recent decision to revalue private credit assets and reduce lending has put the industry on alert, as back leverage has been crucial in boosting returns. Moody's Ratings and the Office of Financial Research estimate that private credit fund borrowing ranges from $300 billion to $345 billion. A pullback in back leverage could further strain the industry, which is already dealing with investor redemptions and rising defaults.

The evolution of business workflows into interconnected digital systems has dramatically expanded the CFO's responsibility for data integrity and governance. With every transaction and process producing measurable data, CFOs are now expected to oversee not only financial reporting but also the broader operational data landscape. As digital integration deepens and AI tools become central to finance, the CFO's stewardship has shifted from traditional financial oversight to becoming the architect and guardian of comprehensive company data systems.

JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and prediction markets at Robinhood, returns to the Modern Money SmartPod to discuss the rapid evolution of prediction markets, the future of 24/7 trading, the integration of prediction markets into financial ecosystems and the potential of perpetual futures.